Buy Low / Sell High — Regression Targets
The loudest buy on the board is Jesús Luzardo (96% owned) — a 3.60-run gap between his 6.91 ERA and 3.31 FIP is the largest pitcher delta in the dataset and screams positive regression. The loudest sell is Clay Holmes (64% owned), whose 2.10 ERA is propped up over a 4.33 FIP — a 2.23-run mirage. Lock in value on both sides before next week's box scores reveal the truth.
Buy-Low Table
| Player | Pos | Own % | Surface | Underlying | Gap | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Luzardo | P | 96% | 6.91 ERA | 3.31 FIP | ▓▓▓▓▓ +3.60 | Act now |
| Keider Montero | P | — | 3.68 ERA | 1.97 FIP | ▓▓▓░░ +1.71 | Act now |
| Dustin May | P | — | 5.84 ERA | 4.01 FIP | ▓▓▓░░ +1.83 | Monitor |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | P | 9% | 6.20 ERA | 4.04 FIP | ▓▓▓░░ +2.16 | Monitor |
| Corey Seager | SS | 97% | .204 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓░ +.086 | Act now |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 86% | .176 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓▓ +.114 | Act now |
| Salvador Perez | C | 86% | .186 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓▓ +.104 | Act now |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 39% | .160 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓▓ +.130 | Monitor |
Sell-High Table
| Player | Pos | Own % | Surface | Underlying | Gap | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Holmes | P | 64% | 2.10 ERA | 4.33 FIP | ▓▓▓▓▓ −2.23 | Act now |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | P | 17% | 2.89 ERA | 5.06 FIP | ▓▓▓▓▓ −2.17 | Act now |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | P | — | 3.42 ERA | 4.91 FIP | ▓▓▓▓░ −1.49 | Act now |
| Michael McGreevy | P | — | 3.29 ERA | 4.55 FIP | ▓▓▓░░ −1.26 | Act now |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | — | .412 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓▓ −.122 | Act now |
| Andy Pages | CF | 95% | .439 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓▓ −.149 | Act now |
| Hunter Goodman | C | — | .378 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓░ −.088 | Act now |
| Ben Rice | 1B | 99% | .378 BABIP | league ~.290 | ▓▓▓▓░ −.088 | Monitor |
Hitter Buy-Lows
Corey Seager (SS, 97.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .204 BABIP is roughly 86 points below league average — average is artificially suppressed.
- Driving signal: BABIP regression is the loudest factor; Seager's career contact profile doesn't support sub-.210 batted-ball luck.
- Trade window: Act now — managers see the AVG slump and undervalue the name.
- Format note: Universal buy in 12T+; the 97% ownership means you're paying for the brand, but the discount is real.
Dansby Swanson (SS, 86.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .176 BABIP is the lowest in this buy group — a 114-point gap to league norm.
- Driving signal: Pure BABIP noise; no contact-profile collapse is consistent with a number that low.
- Trade window: Act now before the AVG correction lands.
Trent Grisham (CF, 39.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .160 BABIP is grotesquely low — 130 points below league baseline.
- Driving signal: BABIP regression candidate; with sub-40% ownership he's a free waiver-wire stash in many leagues, not even a trade.
- Trade window: Monitor — at 39% owned, claim before negotiating.
- Format note: 15T-only must-add; 12T optional OF5/6.
Pitcher Buy-Lows
Jesús Luzardo (P, 96.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 6.91 ERA vs 3.31 FIP — a 3.60-run delta, the largest in the dataset.
- Driving signal: FIP-ERA gap is screaming; the strikeout/walk/HR fundamentals are intact even as runs pour in.
- Trade window: Act now — frustrated managers will move him at a discount before the next two starts.
Keider Montero (P, ?% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 3.68 ERA already looks fine, but 1.97 FIP suggests a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher underneath.
- Driving signal: 1.71-run FIP-ERA gap with strong peripherals — this is a stealth ace profile.
- Trade window: Act now; ownership is unclear so check waivers first.
- Format note: 15T add immediately.
Lance McCullers Jr. (P, 9.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 6.20 ERA vs 4.04 FIP — 2.16-run gap.
- Driving signal: FIP says back-end starter, ERA says cut bait. Sample-size disclaimer applies given his return-from-injury workload.
- Trade window: Monitor — at 9% owned this is a speculative add, not a trade.
- Format note: 15T streamer only.
Hitter Sell-Highs
Andy Pages (CF, 95.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .439 BABIP is 149 points above league norm — the most unsustainable mark in the dataset.
- Driving signal: Pure BABIP regression; no hitter sustains .439 over a full season.
- Trade window: Act now — sell into peak narrative.
Corbin Carroll (RF, ?% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .412 BABIP, 122 points above league average.
- Driving signal: BABIP regression incoming; speed helps but doesn't justify .400+ long-term.
- Trade window: Act now — name value is enormous, AVG correction is coming.
Ben Rice (1B, 99.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: .378 BABIP, 88 points above league baseline.
- Driving signal: BABIP regression; 99% ownership means every league-mate values him.
- Trade window: Monitor — gap is smaller than Pages/Carroll, so don't fire-sale, but field offers.
Pitcher Sell-Highs
Clay Holmes (P, 64.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 2.10 ERA vs 4.33 FIP — 2.23-run gap, loudest sell on the pitcher board.
- Driving signal: ERA-FIP delta plus implied unsustainable LOB%; transition-to-rotation profile suggests the FIP is closer to truth.
- Trade window: Act now — the 2.10 ERA is the only window you'll get.
Eduardo Rodriguez (P, 17.0% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 2.89 ERA vs 5.06 FIP — 2.17-run gap.
- Driving signal: FIP says replacement-level; the ERA is a mirage built on strand-rate luck.
- Trade window: Act now — at 17% owned this may be a drop in shallow leagues rather than a trade chip.
- Format note: 12T drop candidate; 15T sell for any SP6 with a pulse.
Michael McGreevy (P, ?% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 3.29 ERA vs 4.55 FIP — 1.26-run gap, plus fastball velocity down 1.8 mph year-over-year.
- Driving signal: Velocity decline compounds the FIP warning — this is not just luck regression, it's a stuff-decline red flag.
- Trade window: Act now before the velo trend shows up in the box score.
Tomoyuki Sugano (P, ?% owned)
- Surface vs underlying: 3.42 ERA vs 4.91 FIP — 1.49-run gap.
- Driving signal: FIP-ERA delta; rookie-season novelty effect masking the underlying contact quality.
- Trade window: Act now while the surface stats still sell.