Category Chaser - Jul 31 - Aug 2 Weekend Targets
Low-owned weekend bats and arms sorted by 5×5 category projection. All stats Statcast-grounded; all under 25% Yahoo owned.
A 45-game slate across three days, Fri-Sun, Jul 31-Aug 2. Low-owned power bats draw a soft Mets staff, bottom-of-order speed gathers steals, and the save-streamer pool is wide open with two closer roles in flux.
🏆 Loudest Single-Cat Play
Griffin Conine - RF · MIA · 1% owned · 💥 HR
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekend proj (HR / RBI / R / SB) | 0.74 HR · 2.3 RBI · 1.9 R · 0.17 SB |
| L7 playing time | 7 starts, longest streak 5, avg batting order 6.0 |
| Season slash | .277/.358/.553 · .912 OPS |
| L15 form | .300/.349/.700 · 5 HR · 12 H |
| Statcast (bat) | xwOBA .379 · Barrel% 15.8 · HH% 56.6 |
| Underlying | K% 30.5 · BB% 9.9 |
Weekend slate:
- Fri, Jul 31 @ NYM - vs Kodai Senga (RHP)
- Sat, Aug 1 @ NYM - vs Zac Thornton (LHP)
- Sun, Aug 2 @ NYM - vs TBD
Rationale: A 56.6% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate are the loudest contact-quality marks anywhere in this piece, and Conine is riding a genuine heater - five homers in his last 15 games, including a pinch-hit go-ahead shot that completed Miami's sweep of Philadelphia. At 1% owned with a .912 season OPS, he's the clearest value on the board.
Two caveats worth pricing in. He bats left-handed, and the Friday matchup against Senga is a right-hander, so the platoon edge is real but confirm the split before treating it as the ceiling game. And Miami has used him off the bench in high-leverage spots recently, so his three-start weekend isn't guaranteed - check the lineup card each day.
Hitter Combos - Multi-Category Tables
💥 Power Production · HR + RBI
Ranked by weekend HR + RBI×0.4 · all under 25% owned
| # | Player | Pos / Team | Own | HR / RBI proj | Score | L14 (live) | Season slash | Statcast | Weekend matchups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffin Conine ⭐ | RF / MIA | 1% | 0.74 / 2.3 | 1.66 | .300/.349/.700, 5 HR in 15G | .277/.358/.553 | xwOBA .379 · Barrel 15.8% | Fri @ NYM vs Senga (RHP), Sat vs Thornton (LHP), Sun vs TBD |
| 2 | Spencer Torkelson | 1B / DET | 20% | 0.58 / 2.4 | 1.54 | 5 starts, 4-game streak | .222/.297/.404 | xwOBA .317 · Barrel 13.9% · K% 31.5% | Fri @ ATH vs Springs (LHP), Sat vs Perkins (RHP), Sun vs Jump (LHP) |
| 3 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1B / CIN | 1% | 0.55 / 2.4 | 1.51 | .297/.316/.514, 2 HR in 10G | .248/.290/.395 | xwOBA .351 · Barrel 10.1% | Fri vs Skenes (RHP), Sat vs Ashcraft (RHP), Sun vs Keller (RHP) |
| 4 | Joc Pederson | DH / TEX | 4% | 0.70 / 1.6 | 1.34 | .371/.371/.800, 4 HR in 10G | .238/.308/.463 | xwOBA .353 · HH% 49.1% | Fri @ HOU vs Brown (RHP), Sat vs Blanco (RHP), Sun vs TBD |
Conine is the play at 1% owned with the best contact quality in the group. Torkelson has the highest RBI projection and a full three-start slate, though the 31.5% strikeout rate makes him a volatile weekly add. Lowe's Sunday and Saturday matchups are the appeal - Friday against Skenes is a spot to fade, not target, and if your league allows daily moves, sit him for that one. Pederson carries the hottest recent form (.800 SLG over 10 games) but ranks last by projection here; he's a better fit in the runs column below.
🏃 Speed + Runs · R + SB
Ranked by weekend SB×2 + R×0.3 · all under 25% owned
| # | Player | Pos / Team | Own | R / SB proj | Score | L14 (live) | Statcast | Weekend matchups |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasim Nuñez ⭐ | SS / WSH | 12% | 0.9 R / 1.12 SB | 2.51 | 7 starts, 7-game streak | xwOBA .274 · HH% 20.9% | Fri @ ATL vs Elder (RHP), Sat vs López (RHP), Sun vs Pérez (LHP); slot 9 |
| 2 | Jake Mangum | CF / PIT | 4% | 1.8 R / 0.78 SB | 2.10 | 1 SB in 11G | xwOBA .285 · HH% 24.8% | Fri @ CIN vs Greene (RHP), Sat vs Abbott (LHP), Sun vs Burns (RHP); leadoff |
| 3 | A.J. Ewing | CF / NYM | 11% | 2.0 R / 0.63 SB | 1.86 | 6 starts, 4-game streak | xwOBA .317 · Barrel 6.2% | Fri vs Junk (RHP), Sat vs Phillips (RHP), Sun vs Alcantara (RHP); leadoff |
| 4 | Joc Pederson | DH / TEX | 4% | 2.4 R / 0.08 SB | 0.88 | .371/.371/.800, 10 R in 10G | xwOBA .353 · BB% 10.9% | Fri @ HOU vs Brown (RHP), Sat vs Blanco (RHP), Sun vs TBD; leadoff |
Nuñez is the steals play, with the highest SB projection in the pool and seven straight starts - though hitting ninth caps how many runs come with it. Mangum and Ewing both lead off, which is where the runs volume lives, and Ewing draws three straight right-handers. Pederson is here strictly as a runs source: a 0.08 steal projection means he scores last by the formula despite the best recent form on the board, so target him only if runs are the category you need.
Pitcher Combos
🔥 Volume + Strikeouts · W + K
Ranked by weekend W×3 + K×0.5 · sub-25% owned SPs with a confirmed start
| # | Pitcher | Pos / Team | Own | Proj IP / K | Season | Statcast | Weekend start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Drohan ⭐ | SP / MIL | 18% | 5.3 IP / 5.8 K | 3.94 proj ERA | xERA 3.31 · Whiff% 27.5% | Fri, Jul 31 @ LAA - Grade C |
| 2 | David Peterson | SP / CHC | 4% | - | 1.46 ERA, 0.73 WHIP (L14, 12.3 IP) | xERA 5.14 · Whiff% 21.1% | Sat, Aug 1 vs NYY |
| 3 | Walbert Ureña | SP / LAA | 15% | - | - | xERA 3.26 · Whiff% 27.9% | Weekend start expected, date unconfirmed |
Drohan is the only arm here with a confirmed date and a full projection, which is why he leads despite an ugly recent ERA - the 3.31 xERA and 27.5% whiff rate say the underlying work is far better than the results. Peterson has been excellent over his last two turns (1.46 ERA, 0.73 WHIP across 12.3 innings), but the 5.14 xERA is a loud warning that it isn't sustainable, and drawing the Yankees is a genuine test. Ureña has the best whiff rate of the group at 27.9% and would rank first if his start date firms up - check the probables Friday morning before committing.
🎯 Ratio Plays · ERA + WHIP
Ranked by 1/(proj_ERA × proj_WHIP) · sub-25% owned SPs with 5+ proj IP
| # | Pitcher | Pos / Team | Own | ERA / WHIP proj | Statcast | Weekend start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walbert Ureña ⭐ | SP / LAA | 15% | 2.90 / 1.26 | xERA 3.26 · Whiff% 27.9% | Date unconfirmed |
| 2 | Shane Drohan | SP / MIL | 18% | 4.18 / 1.29 | xERA 3.31 · Whiff% 27.5% | Fri, Jul 31 @ LAA - 5.3 IP proj |
Ureña posts the tightest combined ratio in the pool and the strongest whiff rate, making him the top target the moment his start is confirmed. Drohan is the fallback with a locked-in Friday date. Note that Ureña and Drohan are opposing arms in the same Milwaukee-at-Anaheim game, so if you're streaming for ratios rather than wins, you can't play both without one working against the other.
🔒 Saves · SV
Ranked by weekend SV proj · sub-25% owned RPs
| # | Pitcher | Team | Own | SV proj | Role | L14 bullpen | Statcast | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Taylor ⭐ | CWS | 14% | 0.25 | Committee lead | 4G, 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 SV, 2 HLD | xERA 2.35 · Whiff% 29.8% | Highest save projection in the pool with the best xERA; the ratio floor holds even in weeks the saves don't come |
| 2 | Andrew Kittredge | BAL | 1% | 0.22 | Next in line, Helsley on IL | 7G, 6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 SV, 2 HLD | xERA 3.85 · Whiff% 23.5% | The free-square play at 1% owned with Baltimore's ninth unsettled |
| 3 | Erik Miller | SF | 1% | 0.22 | Committee | 5G, 1.7 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 SV | xERA 3.17 · Whiff% 34.8% | Elite 34.8% whiff rate; San Francisco's ninth has been in flux since Walker was optioned |
No confirmed closer is available under 25% owned, so all three are speculative. Taylor is the best combination of save odds and ratio protection. Kittredge is the highest-upside dart at 1% owned, with Ryan Helsley on the IL and Baltimore working a committee - though note the Orioles have cycled through save options all month, so this is a live-roulette play rather than a settled role. Miller's 34.8% whiff rate is the best in the group, and the Giants' ninth inning remains genuinely unresolved.
📋 Lineup Strategies
For HR chasers: Griffin Conine (1% owned) is the standout - a .912 OPS and five homers in 15 games at essentially zero roster cost. Nathaniel Lowe (1% owned) is the second cheap power source, but sit him Friday against Skenes if your league allows daily moves.
For runs + SB combos: Nasim Nuñez (12% owned) is the steals play at 1.12 projected. If you need runs instead, A.J. Ewing (11%) and Jake Mangum (4%) both lead off, and Joc Pederson (4%) is the pure runs source at 2.4 projected on the strength of a .371 stretch.
For pitching: Walbert Ureña (15% owned) is the best ratio arm in the pool once his date is confirmed; Shane Drohan (18%) is the confirmed Friday alternative. David Peterson (4%) is the deep-league flier, with the caveat that his 5.14 xERA doesn't support the recent ERA.
For saves: Grant Taylor (14%) offers the best mix of save odds and ratios. Andrew Kittredge (1%) and Erik Miller (1%) are the free lottery tickets in two unsettled bullpens.