At-a-Glance Classification
| Player | L7 OPS | Season OPS | xwOBA Δ | Class | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 1.420 | .790 | +.055 ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ | REAL HEAT | RIDE |
| Aaron Judge | 1.510 | 1.150 | +.030 ▓▓▓░░░░░ | REAL HEAT | RIDE |
| Byron Buxton | 1.180 | .880 | +.045 ▓▓▓▓▓░░░ | REAL HEAT | RIDE |
| Mike Trout | .950 | .810 | +.025 ▓▓▓░░░░░ | REAL HEAT | RIDE |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | .960 | .840 | +.020 ▓▓░░░░░░ | REAL HEAT | RIDE |
| Alec Burleson | .960 | .740 | +.005 ▓░░░░░░░ | BABIP HEAT | SELL |
| Isaac Paredes | .920 | .760 | -.005 ░░░░░░░░ | BABIP HEAT | SELL |
| Ryan Jeffers | 1.080 | .720 | +.008 ▓░░░░░░░ | BABIP HEAT | SELL |
| JJ Wetherholt | .780 | n/a | n/a | Uncertain | HOLD |
| Pete Alonso | .820 | .850 | +.035 ▓▓▓▓░░░░ | BABIP COLD | BUY |
| José Ramírez | .380 | .830 | +.015 ▓▓░░░░░░ | BABIP COLD | BUY |
| Royce Lewis | .390 | .680 | +.020 ▓▓░░░░░░ | BABIP COLD | BUY |
| Trent Grisham | .350 | .810 | +.010 ▓░░░░░░░ | BABIP COLD | BUY |
| Taylor Ward | .150 | .700 | -.040 ░░░░░░░░ | REAL COLD | FADE |
| Jarren Duran | .180 | .720 | -.035 ░░░░░░░░ | REAL COLD | FADE |
| Kyle Stowers | .310 | .780 | -.030 ░░░░░░░░ | REAL COLD | FADE |
| Victor Scott II | .220 | .640 | -.025 ░░░░░░░░ | REAL COLD | FADE |
| Dylan Beavers | .180 | n/a | n/a | Uncertain | HOLD |
| Xavier Edwards | .290 | .680 | -.005 ░░░░░░░░ | BABIP COLD | BUY |
| Ernie Clement | .280 | .680 | -.015 ░░░░░░░░ | REAL COLD | FADE |
Real Heat — Buy or Ride
William Contreras (ATL, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 11/19, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 7 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.055 vs season, HH% +9, Barrel% +4 — the bat speed is back
- Verdict: RIDE — top-3 catcher upside reasserting itself
- Format note: Elite in 2C formats; in 12T points he's a weekly must-start
Aaron Judge (NYY, 99.0% owned)
- L7 line: 8/17, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.030, HH% +6, Barrel% +5 over an already elite baseline
- Verdict: RIDE — never selling
- Format note: OF1 in every format
Byron Buxton (MIN, 94.0% owned)
- L7 line: 7/19, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.045, HH% +8, Barrel% +6 — peak Buxton mode
- Verdict: RIDE while healthy; don't sell into the heat
- Format note: 5x5 monster; points formats love the power+SB combo
Mike Trout (LAA, 96.0% owned)
- L7 line: 5/20, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.025, HH% +4 — quiet skill bump
- Verdict: RIDE — buy-low window may be closing
- Format note: OF2 ceiling restored in 12T
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 3/15, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.020, HH% +5 — BA lags but contact quality is up
- Verdict: RIDE — first-round floor intact
- Format note: SS1 in all formats
BABIP Heat — Sell If You Can
Alec Burleson (STL, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 6/22, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.005, HH% flat — slash inflated by sequencing
- Verdict: SELL into the RBI line
- Format note: Streamer in 12T, bench in 15T
Isaac Paredes (HOU, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 9/22, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.005, HH% -2 — pulled-fly profile masking weak contact
- Verdict: SELL the BA spike
- Format note: CI/3B fill-in only
Ryan Jeffers (MIN, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 7/17, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.008, HH% +1 — barely moved despite the line
- Verdict: SELL if a Contreras-needy manager bites
- Format note: C2 in 2C, marginal in 1C
Real Cold — Move On
Taylor Ward (LAA, 92.0% owned)
- L7 line: 1/20 (.050)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.040, HH% -7 — bat is genuinely slow
- Verdict: FADE — drop in 12T
- Format note: OF5 even in deep formats right now
Jarren Duran (BOS, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 1/18 (.055)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.035, HH% -6 — chase rate ballooning
- Verdict: FADE in shallow, hold-and-bench in 15T
- Format note: SB floor is the only lifeline
Kyle Stowers (MIA, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 2/19 (.105)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.030, HH% -5 — contact eroding
- Verdict: FADE
- Format note: 15T-only flier
Victor Scott II (STL, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 1/16 (.062)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.025, HH% -4 — already-thin contact getting thinner
- Verdict: FADE outside SB-desperate builds
- Format note: Speed-only stash in 15T
Ernie Clement (TOR, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 2/16 (.125)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.015, HH% -3 — ceiling capped
- Verdict: FADE
- Format note: MI streamer only
BABIP Cold — Buy The Dip
José Ramírez (CLE, 99.0% owned)
- L7 line: 2/16 (.125)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.015, HH% +3 — contact actually improving
- Verdict: BUY — pry him loose from a panicking manager
- Format note: 3B1 every format
Pete Alonso (NYM, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 3/19, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.035, HH% +6, Barrel% +4 — BA hides elite contact
- Verdict: BUY — the HRs are coming in bunches
- Format note: 1B1 in 12T points
Royce Lewis (MIN, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 2/15 (.133)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.020, HH% +4 — quality of contact strong
- Verdict: BUY at a discount
- Format note: CI in 12T, must-start 15T
Trent Grisham (NYY, 39.0% owned)
- L7 line: 2/17 (.117)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA +.010, HH% +2 — lineup spot still elite
- Verdict: BUY off waivers in 12T
- Format note: OF4 with HR/SB upside
Xavier Edwards (MIA, ?% owned)
- L7 line: 2/17 (.117)
- Underlying delta: xwOBA -.005, HH% flat — BABIP victim, speed intact
- Verdict: BUY in SB-need builds
- Format note: MI in 15T roto