Morning Java - 09/28: Misiorowski Leads MLB in ERA, Strikeouts, WHIP and Opponent Average - Plus a Thank You, and What's Next
TL;DRSkim
The regular season is over. These are the five things worth carrying into your keeper decisions and 2027 draft prep:
- KEEP - Jacob Misiorowski led all of MLB in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponent average (.157) at age 24. The clear NL Cy Young.
- KEEP - Yordan Alvarez hit .316/.432/.601 with 42 homers and 106 RBI over 158 games and is the AL MVP favorite.
- KEEP - Alec Burleson finished as the major league RBI leader, the first Cardinal to do it since Joe Torre in 1971.
- WATCH - Corbin Burnes ended on the IL with shoulder inflammation after three innings all year. His 2027 value is the biggest open question of the offseason.
- WATCH - River Ryan and Jackson Jobe are the two Detroit arms to have ranked before your 2027 draft.
Misiorowski's Season Was the Best in Baseball
KEEP · MIL · SP
Jacob Misiorowski closed out a season that will be remembered for a long time, leading all of Major League Baseball - not just the National League - in ERA (1.80), strikeouts (252), WHIP (0.80) and opponent batting average (.157).
The franchise context: that's the lowest single-season ERA by a Brewers starter in history, past Mike Caldwell's 2.36 from 1978. Among all pitchers with 170-plus innings since the mound was lowered in 1969, his 1.80 sits alongside Gooden, Maddux, Greinke and deGrom.
He was Milwaukee's Opening Day starter - 11 strikeouts in a game where Brewers pitching tied the modern record with 20 - and pitched the finale as a 68-pitch tune-up, striking out five before a standing ovation from the largest crowd of the Brewers' season. Along the way he threw a 105.5 mph fastball, the fastest by a starter in Statcast history, came within a Kyle Schwarber single of a perfect game, and struck out the first seven Rockies he faced on July 26.
Milwaukee finished 103-59, the best record in baseball. In a recent MLB.com poll, all 32 surveyed experts picked him for NL Cy Young.
Verdict: KEEP at almost any price. A 24-year-old who just led the sport in four categories is a top-three fantasy starter going into 2027. The only caution worth pricing in is workload - he cleared his career innings high by a wide margin this year.
Alvarez Caps an MVP Season
KEEP · HOU · DH
Yordan Alvarez finished at .316/.432/.601 with 42 home runs and 106 RBI in 158 games and is the AL MVP favorite, along with the AL batting title. Houston claimed the AL West on the final day.
Two teammates finished scorching: Yainer Diaz hit .350/.377/.582 with six homers over his last 34 games, and Jeremy Peña went .353/.358/.706 with five homers in the final 12.
Verdict: KEEP Alvarez - a first-round bat who stayed on the field for 158 games after several injury-shortened years. Diaz is the sneaky keeper here; catcher production like that is scarce.
Burleson Wins the RBI Crown
KEEP · STL · 1B
Alec Burleson led the majors in RBI, the first Cardinal to do so since Joe Torre in 1971, finishing with career bests across the board.
Verdict: KEEP, with a caveat. RBI totals depend heavily on the lineup around you, and St. Louis finished under .500 - he did this without much help, which is the encouraging read, but don't draft him expecting a repeat of the counting stats specifically.
Scherzer Finishes Three Strikeouts Behind Verlander
HOLD · TOR · SP
Max Scherzer (15% owned) threw seven innings with seven strikeouts and one earned run on short rest in Toronto's finale. He ends the regular season three strikeouts shy of Justin Verlander for eighth on the all-time list - and since postseason strikeouts don't count toward career totals, that's where the gap stands until next season.
Verlander, for his part, retired Saturday at 3,560.
Verdict: A 42-year-old finishing with a seven-strikeout start on short rest is worth remembering next March. Deep-league flier only.
Kikuchi Closes the Angels' 100-Loss Season
HOLD · LAA · SP
Yusei Kikuchi (16% owned) allowed three earned runs over five innings as the Angels lost 7-3 to Seattle, completing the first 100-loss season in franchise history.
Verdict: HOLD in keeper formats as a steady mid-rotation arm. The environment around him is the problem - a 100-loss club suppresses wins regardless of how he pitches.
Burnes Ends on the IL Again
WATCH · ARI · SP
Corbin Burnes finished on the 15-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, having thrown exactly three innings all season - his Sept. 8 debut, 424 days after his last big-league pitch, following Tommy John surgery and a teres major strain.
Verdict: Do not cut him in dynasty. A former Cy Young winner entering an offseason with a clean surgical runway is exactly the buy-low window that closes fast if the spring reports are good. But price him as a question mark, not an ace, until he's throwing in February.
The Detroit Arms Worth Ranking
WATCH · DET · SP
River Ryan (12% owned) made his second Tigers appearance, going 1⅓ innings with two earned runs and three strikeouts after a scoreless three-inning debut. The stuff is legitimate; the durability isn't established.
Jackson Jobe (23% owned) finished with seven-plus strikeouts in each of his last four starts and a 3.91 ERA, adding a cutter mid-season rather than waiting for the winter.
Verdict: Jobe is the safer 2027 investment - full-season rotation reps and a visible development curve. Ryan is the higher ceiling and the bigger risk. Rank them in that order and let the room decide.
Alcantara's Role Heading Into 2027
WATCH · MIA · SP
Sandy Alcantara (80% owned) picked up another save appearing between starts, and said he'd like to remain with Miami for the rest of his career.
Verdict: This is the murkiest offseason profile on the board. A former Cy Young starter taking save opportunities in a committee is either a pitcher being repurposed or a team filling a hole with its best available arm. Wait for spring role clarity before drafting him - the difference between SP and closer eligibility is enormous.
Luzardo Back and Healthy for October
HOLD · PHI · SP
Jesús Luzardo (88% owned) made his first appearance since Sept. 7's two-hit shutout of Atlanta, working an inning of relief to confirm his health for the postseason.
Verdict: KEEP. He finished 14-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 221 strikeouts and carried a 1.93 ERA over his last 21 starts. The September shoulder scare resolved to inflammation with no structural damage - that's a buying opportunity if anyone in your league got spooked.
Ty France Hits His 500-PA Incentive on the Final Swing
HOLD · SD · 1B
Ty France signed a minor-league deal with a camp invite in February and finished at .295/.363/.502 with 21 home runs, reaching his 500-plate-appearance incentive in the last offensive half-inning of the regular season.
Verdict: A genuine late-round value in 2027 drafts. The batting average and on-base skills came back, and first base is shallow enough that this profile plays.
Two Managers Out, One Undecided
WATCH · SEA / ARI · TEAM
Seattle fired Dan Wilson, with the organization now searching for its third manager in four years. Jerry Dipoto acknowledged the club collectively failed to meet expectations. In Arizona, ownership will decide this week whether to move on from Torey Lovullo, whose contract is in its final year.
Verdict: Both matter more than they look. Managerial changes reshape bullpen hierarchies and lineup construction, which is where draft-day value gets created and destroyed. Track the hires before you set your 2027 rankings.
Late-Season Injuries to Carry Forward
WATCH · MULTI
Blake Treinen hurt his right shoulder warming up Saturday and is out for the postseason. Tony Gonsolin landed on the IL with an allergic reaction after one appearance back from Tommy John. Tyron Guerrero re-aggravated a right shoulder strain. Luis Castillo ended on the IL with shoulder impingement.
Verdict: Note all four for spring. Shoulder issues that end a season are the ones most likely to compromise the following April, and these will be forgotten by draft day.
Realmuto and Arraez Head Into October Banged Up
WATCH · PHI
J.T. Realmuto snapped an 0-for-34 stretch with a two-out RBI double while batting ninth for the first time in his career. Luis Arraez still hasn't taken a swing in the cage since spraining his left ankle Thursday, though Don Mattingly said he could hypothetically pinch-hit.
Verdict: Realmuto is 35 and finished on a month-long slide - that's a real flag for 2027 catcher rankings. Arraez's ankle is a postseason story, not a keeper one.
Schwarber's Hardest-Hit Ball of the Year
HOLD · PHI · DH
Kyle Schwarber doubled at 116.8 mph, his hardest-hit base hit of 2026 by nearly four miles per hour, after a quiet September.
Verdict: KEEP. Exit velocity that spikes at the end of a slow month is the cleanest signal there was nothing physically wrong.
Chaparro's Second-Half Surge
STASH · WSH · 3B
Andrés Chaparro finished with a .956 OPS in the second half and homered twice in the finale.
Verdict: Put him on your sleeper list. A half-season OPS near .960 from a player likely to open 2027 with a job is the kind of name that goes undrafted in shallow leagues.
Thank You - and What's Next
That's the 2026 season. Thank you for reading every morning, for the corrections when we got something wrong, and for trusting the process when a Statcast read cut against the consensus. The whole point of this page has been that the numbers underneath tell you more than the name on the back of the jersey - and this year the board proved it repeatedly.
Offseason coverage continues here: keeper deadlines, prospect risers, and the first 2027 rankings.
If you play fantasy hockey, we've launched a sister site: Kodo Hockey. Same approach, different sport - expected goals instead of expected slugging, shot quality instead of barrel rate, and the same refusal to rank a player on reputation. The NHL season is just getting going, so it's a good time to jump in.
See you in the spring. ⚾