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The Adds Sheet — 5/24: Tovar nowhere to go but up, Semien buy-low

Top conviction HOLD: Ezequiel Tovar (51% owned) — SS is delivering xwOBA (.284) that already exceeds his surface wOBA (.228) by 56 points, signaling a batting-average rebound is incoming despite the .255 L14 line. Top conviction AVOID: Brenton Doyle (48% owned) — the fill-in CF is benched 5 of the last 7 days with a .222 L14 average and xwOBA of .248, and his reps will evaporate the moment Mickey Moniak (placed on 10-day IL 2026-05-22, ETA Early June per MLB.com) returns.

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May 26, 2026

The Adds Sheet — 5/24: Tovar nowhere to go but up, Semien buy-low

Top conviction HOLD: Ezequiel Tovar (51% owned) — SS is delivering xwOBA (.284) that already exceeds his surface wOBA (.228) by 56 points, signaling a batting-average rebound is incoming despite the .255 L14 line. Top conviction AVOID: Brenton Doyle (48% owned) — the fill-in CF is benched 5 of the last 7 days with a .222 L14 average and xwOBA of .248, and his reps will evaporate the moment Mickey Moniak (placed on 10-day IL 2026-05-22, ETA Early June per MLB.com) returns.

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TL;DRSkim

Yesterday's Yahoo add-rate movers, separated by underlying signal:

  • BUY-LOW STREAMSEzequiel Tovar (COL SS, +9pp own) and Marcus Semien (NYM 2B, +6pp) both have ~50-point xwOBA-vs-wOBA gaps with locked daily playing time. AVG bounce coming in 2-3 weeks.
  • AVOID THE CHASEBrenton Doyle (COL OF, +13pp) is a Moniak IL timeshare with a .549 OPS. Ramón Laureano, Yainer Diaz, Luis Castillo, Jack Flaherty all chase moves without underlying support.
  • Bottom line — Two real adds (Tovar, Semien) for managers needing AVG-rebound equity; pass on every other +5pp mover today.

Below are Yahoo's top waiver-wire adds for 2026-05-24, ranked by day-over-day ownership-percentage movement.


STREAM Ezequiel Tovar

SS · COL · 42% → 51% owned (▲ +9.0pp)

Why he's being added: Tovar (51% owned) is the #1 SS in Colorado's healthy lineup and is locked into a full-time role with daily at-bats. Over the last 14 days he's slashing .255/.279/.302 with 4 RBIs and 3 runs—modest on the surface, but his Statcast profile is materially ahead of his stat line. His xwOBA of .284 exceeds his actual wOBA (.228) by 56 points, a gap that historically closes through batting-average regression over the next 2-3 weeks. This is classic buy-low territory: the role is locked, the peripherals confirm skill, and the surface numbers are due for a bounce.

🔴 B 05-17 🟢5 05-18 🟢5 05-19 🟢6 05-20 🟢4 05-21 🟢7 05-22 🟢6 05-23

Avoid ░░░░░░░░░░ Stream · 75% — clear stream

Verdict: STREAM Tovar as a waiver-wire priority in 12-team mixed leagues. The role is guaranteed, the peripherals say an AVG rebound is coming, and he's been in the lineup every day this week.


STREAM Marcus Semien

2B · NYM · 46% → 52% owned (▲ +6.0pp)

Why he's being added: Semien (52% owned) is the #1 2B in New York's healthy rotation and locked into daily plate appearances. Over the last 14 days he's slashing .166/.241/.222 with 1 HR and 5 RBIs—a rough surface line—but his xwOBA of .302 exceeds his actual wOBA (.254) by 45 points, indicating that batted-ball quality and luck are misaligned. He's been in the lineup six straight days (05-18 through 05-23), confirming the role is rock-solid. Like Tovar, this is a textbook buy-low on a starting-position player whose peripherals are signaling a correction.

🟢7 05-17 🟢6 05-18 🟢5 05-19 🟢7 05-20 🟢6 05-21 🟢6 05-22 🟢7 05-23

Avoid ░░░░░░░░░░ Stream · 75% — clear stream

Verdict: STREAM Semien this week as a starting 2B fill or in mixed leagues looking for AVG-rebound equity. The role is certain, the xwOBA gap is material, and the lineups confirm playing time.


AVOID Brenton Doyle

OF · COL · 35% → 48% owned (▲ +13.0pp)

Why he's being added: Doyle (48% owned) is a temporary fill-in CF covering for Mickey Moniak (placed on 10-day IL 2026-05-22 with right ankle sprain, ETA Early June per MLB.com). His replacement class is explicitly flagged as a temporary cover, meaning reps will evaporate in 2-3 weeks when the starter returns. Over the last 14 days he's slashing .222/.278/.278 with no home runs and his xwOBA of .248 is below-average, offering no hidden upside. He's been benched 5 of the last 7 days, indicating the team is managing his workload even during his fill-in window. This is pure short-term noise—the role has an expiration date.

🔴 B 05-17 🟢2 05-18 🔴 B 05-19 🔴 B 05-20 🔴 B 05-21 🔴 B 05-22 🔴 B 05-23

Avoid ▓▓░░░░░░░░ Stream · 25% — soft avoid

Verdict: AVOID Doyle unless you're in a very deep league with zero outfield depth. The ownership spike is justified by the Moniak injury, but the reps end in early June and the peripherals offer no upside play.


AVOID Ramón Laureano

OF · SD · 44% → 53% owned (▲ +9.0pp)

Why he's being added: Laureano (53% owned) is the #1 LF in San Diego's healthy lineup and locked into daily at-bats. Over the last 14 days he's slashing .181/.220/.273 with 1 HR and 1 RBI—a genuinely poor surface line—and his xwOBA of .318 is only marginally ahead of his actual output, suggesting the peripherals aren't running as hot as other buy-low candidates on today's board. He's been in the starting lineup five of the last seven days (05-17, 05-18, 05-19, 05-20, 05-22), so the role is real, but the xwOBA gap here is smaller than Tovar or Semien, and the AVG damage is more severe. This is a secondary buy-low, not a top-tier waiver target.

🟢7 05-17 🟢8 05-18 🟢3 05-19 🟢8 05-20 ⬜ 05-21 🟢6 05-22 🔴 B 05-23

Avoid ░░░░░░░░▓▓ Stream · 55% — toss-up

Verdict: WATCH Laureano as a secondary buy-low in deeper leagues, but prioritize Tovar or Semien first. The role is locked, but the xwOBA confirmation is weaker and the AVG shortfall is severe.


AVOID Yainer Diaz

C · HOU · 44% → 52% owned (▲ +8.0pp) · IL10

Why he's being added: Diaz (52% owned) is listed as a platoon/backup catcher on the Houston depth chart, backed up by the curated injury report showing he was placed on the 10-day IL 2026-05-05 with a left oblique strain (ETA Mid-May per MLB.com May 11). His season slash is .215/.238/.329 (.567 OPS) with xwOBA of .257, well below average. This is pure speculation on an IL return that offers no role certainty and peripheral weakness.

🔴 B 05-17 🔴 B 05-18 🔴 B 05-19 🔴 B 05-20 ⬜ 05-21 🔴 B 05-22 🔴 B 05-23

Avoid ▓▓░░░░░░░░ Stream · 20% — soft avoid

Verdict: AVOID Diaz until he's activated and shows playing time. The IL-return story is too uncertain, and there's no role guarantees or positive peripherals to justify the add.


AVOID Luis Castillo

SP · SEA · 66% → 72% owned (▲ +6.0pp)

Why he's being added: Castillo (72% owned) is the #5 starter in Seattle's healthy 5-man rotation and locked into weekly starts. Over his last 14 days, he's logged 7.3 IP across 2 starts with 10 K and a 6.16 ERA. His xERA of 5.54 is substantially worse than his season ERA of 6.41, indicating bad luck is NOT the story here—his actual pitching is below-average. His Stuff+ of 88 is below-league-average stuff, and the peripherals don't support a breakout. At 72% ownership, he's already widely rostered in mixed leagues; there's no value-add here for waiver-wire action.

🔴 B 05-17 🔴 B 05-18 🟢• 05-19 🔴 B 05-20 ⬜ 05-21 🔴 B 05-22 🔴 B 05-23

Avoid ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ Stream · 30% — soft avoid

Verdict: AVOID Castillo as a pickup. He's already widely owned, the xERA confirms ERA is sustainable, and there's no skill breakout or peripherals supporting an add.


AVOID Jack Flaherty

SP · DET · 51% → 57% owned (▲ +6.0pp)

Why he's being added: Flaherty (57% owned) is the #4 starter in Detroit's healthy 5-man rotation and locked into weekly starts. Over his last 14 days, he's logged 12.3 IP across 3 starts with 13 K and a 7.32 ERA. His xERA of 5.02 sits well above his season ERA, suggesting some positive regression, but his Stuff+ of 92 is still below-average. The ownership has climbed to 57%, and while the xERA could signal a small rebound, the upside is capped and he's already widely held. Skip this as a waiver priority.

🟢• 05-17 🔴 B 05-18 🔴 B 05-19 🔴 B 05-20 🔴 B 05-21 🟢• 05-22 ⬜ 05-23

Avoid ▓▓▓░░░░░░░ Stream · 25% — soft avoid

Verdict: AVOID Flaherty as a 12-team waiver target. At 57% ownership he's already on many rosters, the below-average stuff caps upside, and the xERA rebound is modest.

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