Cam Schlittler headlines the slate with a dream double (BAL/MIL both sub-.710 OPS), while Davis Martin at 57% owned is the must-add streamer with a soft CWS-vs-LAA / vs-SEA split. Avoid Aaron Nola until the 6.03 ERA stops bleeding.
Two-Start Pitchers — Week of May 4–10
A loaded top tier this week: Tarik Skubal, Jacob deGrom, and Cam Schlittler all line up twice against sub-.780 OPS lineups, with Schlittler's BAL/MIL pairing the cleanest double-dip on the board. The middle tier is where the week is won — Davis Martin at 57% rostered draws CWS-friendly opponents (LAA, SEA) and Nick Martinez gets TOR's 17.8 K% plus a Fenway date that's better than the name suggests. On the danger side, Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer are popular two-start names actively torching ratios.
At-a-Glance
| Pitcher | Team | Throws | Own % | ERA | xERA | Start 1 | Start 2 |
|---|
| Cam Schlittler | NYY | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 97% | 1.51 | 2.38 | vs BAL (.705) | @ MIL (.699) |
| Tarik Skubal | DET | LHP | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 99% | 2.70 | 3.17 | vs BOS (.665) | @ KC (.707) |
| Jacob deGrom | TEX | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 99% | 2.01 | 3.22 | @ NYY (.775) | vs CHC (.776) |
| José Soriano | LAA | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 95% | 0.84 | 3.10 | vs CWS (.709) | @ TOR (.694) |
| Gavin Williams | CLE | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ 94% | 2.70 | 3.79 | @ KC (.707) | vs MIN (.706) |
| Davis Martin | CWS | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 57% | 1.95 | 4.54 | @ LAA (.722) | vs SEA (.701) |
| Nick Martinez | TB | RHP | ▓▓▓░░░░░ 34% | 1.70 | 3.85 | vs TOR (.694) | @ BOS (.665) |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | RHP | ▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 64% | 6.03 | 4.85 | @ MIA (.718) | vs COL (.715) |
Tier 1 — Must Start (any league size)
- Start 1: 5/4 vs BAL · opp OPS .705, K% 24.5% — top-end strikeout matchup at home, BAL whiffs more than league average.
- Start 2: 5/9 @ MIL · opp OPS .699, K% 20.4% — second sub-.700 lineup; ratio-safe road spot.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | TEX | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.00 |
| 4/23 | BOS | 8.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1.12 |
| 4/17 | KC | 6.0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0.00 |
Rolling — 1 ER over last 20 IP, 19 K.
- Pitcher quality: 1.51 ERA / 2.38 xERA / 81% whiff says it's real, not smoke.
- Combined verdict: SP1 of the week, full stop. Two soft offenses + elite form = anchor start.
- League notes: Auto-start all formats.
- Start 1: 5/4 vs BOS · opp OPS .665, K% 21.8% — softest offense on the slate; he 10-K'd them 4/18.
- Start 2: 5/10 @ KC · opp OPS .707, K% 22.6% — neutral park, contact-prone lineup.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/29 | ATL | 7.0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2.57 |
| 4/23 | MIL | 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 6.00 |
| 4/18 | BOS | 6.0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1.50 |
Steady — 22 K over last 3, one bumpy MIL outing.
- Pitcher quality: 2.70/3.17 with 76% whiff — Cy-tier floor.
- Combined verdict: Two-start ace against two of the AL's lower OPS lineups. SP1.
- League notes: Auto-start all formats.
- Start 1: 5/5 @ NYY · opp OPS .775, K% 23.6% — toughest spot of the week, but his stuff plays anywhere.
- Start 2: 5/10 vs CHC · opp OPS .776, K% 20.6% — home park neutralizes some of the OPS.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | NYY | 6.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1.50 |
| 4/23 | PIT | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1.73 |
| 4/17 | SEA | 4.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.00 |
Rolling — 0.96 WHIP season, 18 K last 3.
- Pitcher quality: 11.49 K9, 85% whiff — best stuff on the planet.
- Combined verdict: Tougher matchups than the other two aces, but you don't bench deGrom. SP1 in points, K-leverage in 5x5.
- League notes: Auto-start all formats.
Tier 2 — Confident Streamers (12-team and deeper)
- Start 1: 5/4 vs CWS · opp OPS .709, K% 24.4% — high-K lineup at home, plus matchup.
- Start 2: 5/10 @ TOR · opp OPS .694, K% 17.8% — TOR rarely whiffs but the OPS is friendly.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | CWS | 5.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5.40 |
| 4/22 | TOR | 5.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 |
| 4/17 | SD | 5.2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0.00 |
Cooling slightly — 3 BB+ in 2 of last 3.
- Pitcher quality: 0.84 ERA but 2.94 FIP says regression coming; 91% whiff is elite.
- Combined verdict: Two starts vs lineups he's already faced this month. Confident SP3.
- League notes: Auto-start all formats.
- Start 1: 5/5 @ KC · opp OPS .707, K% 22.6% — ratio-friendly road draw.
- Start 2: 5/10 vs MIN · opp OPS .706, K% 22.7% — divisional lineup at home.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/29 | TB | 7.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0.00 |
| 4/24 | TOR | 6.0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 9.00 |
| 4/18 | BAL | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1.29 |
Volatile — 20 K in two dominant starts sandwiching one blowup.
- Pitcher quality: 11.01 K9 / 79% whiff is real; 3.94 FIP suggests ERA holds near 3.
- Combined verdict: Two clean matchups, K upside both nights. Strong SP3/4.
- League notes: Auto-start all formats.
- Start 1: 5/4 @ LAA · opp OPS .722, K% 25.4% — modest OPS but huge K rate is a strikeout-bonus gold mine.
- Start 2: 5/10 vs SEA · opp OPS .701, K% 24.0% — two below-average offenses with elevated K%.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | LAA | 5.2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1.73 |
| 4/23 | ARI | 6.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1.48 |
| 4/17 | OAK | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.29 |
Rolling — 3 ER over last 19 IP, 18 K.
- Pitcher quality: 1.95 ERA / 4.54 xERA gap is real, but 2.93 FIP says he's earning more than xERA suggests.
- Combined verdict: Top streamer of the week. Two favorable lineups, hot form, just faced LAA last week and won.
- League notes: 12T+ must-add; usable in 15T as SP4.
- Start 1: 5/4 vs TOR · opp OPS .694, K% 17.8% — TOR doesn't whiff, but the OPS protects the ratio.
- Start 2: 5/9 @ BOS · opp OPS .665, K% 21.8% — Fenway risk but lowest-OPS lineup of the week.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | CLE | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.00 |
| 4/22 | CIN | 8.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1.12 |
| 4/17 | PIT | 5.1 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3.53 |
Rolling — 1 ER over last 15 IP.
- Pitcher quality: 1.70 ERA but 5.84 K9 / 10% whiff is alarming; 3.69 FIP suggests usable ratio without K upside.
- Combined verdict: Points/ratio-league streamer; less appealing in 5x5 K leagues.
- League notes: 12T+ in points; 15T-only in K-heavy 5x5.
Tier 3 — High-Variance Sub-30% Plays (15-team only)
- Start 1: 5/4 @ SEA · opp OPS .701, K% 24.0% — pitcher's park, K-prone lineup, the compelling half.
- Start 2: 5/10 @ LAD · opp OPS .790, K% 20.7% — hard pass on its own, but you're locked in.
- Recent form (only 1 logged): 4/14 vs MIA — 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K · 5.40.
- Pitcher quality: 3.42 ERA / 4.69 xERA / 5.06 FIP — peripherals scream regression.
- Combined verdict: Roll the SEA start, hold breath at LAD. 15T desperation only.
- League notes: 15T only.
Shane Baz (BAL, RHP, low owned)
- Start 1: 5/4 @ NYY · opp OPS .775, K% 23.6% — avoid this half if you can split.
- Start 2: 5/9 vs OAK · opp OPS .730, K% 22.5% — the reason to consider; home vs OAK is the gamble.
- Recent form:
| Date | Opp | IP | H | ER | BB | K | Game ERA |
|---|
| 4/28 | HOU | 5.2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1.73 |
| 4/21 | KC | 6.1 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5.90 |
| 4/16 | CLE | 6.0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6.00 |
Mixed — one strong, two rough.
- Pitcher quality: 4.50 ERA / 3.79 FIP / 7.68 K9 — backend stuff with K floor.
- Combined verdict: Two-start gamble for K volume only. NYY half is scary.
- League notes: 15T only.
Avoid This Week
| Pitcher | Bad Matchup(s) | Why to Sit |
|---|
| Aaron Nola (64% owned) | @ MIA (.718), vs COL (.715) | 6.03 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 11+ ER allowed in last two starts; COL bats are hot regardless of road OPS, and Nola hasn't gotten through 5 IP since mid-April. |
| Eric Lauer (6% owned) | @ TB (.705), vs LAA (.722) | 6.00 ERA / 6.53 FIP / 15% whiff. No K upside, no ratio safety; LAA's 25.4% K% is the only redeeming data point and it's not enough. |
| Michael Wacha (64% owned) | vs CLE (.710), vs DET (.739) | DET start is a Skubal-tier offense in disguise; 10+ ER over last two outings, 4.54 xERA says ratios will keep bleeding. |
