The waiver wire this week is essentially a regression buffet. Six of our eleven names are pitchers whose ERAs are running well ahead of their FIPs, and the rest are hitters with BABIPs in the gutter. The loudest sub-5% shout is Harrison Bader (2% owned) sporting a comically unlucky .143 BABIP, while the loudest sub-20% target is Adrian Morejon (11% owned), whose 6.17 ERA hides a 1.66 FIP underneath.
The Five You Don't Have (Sub-5% Owned)
Harrison Bader (LF — SF — 2% owned)
- Season line: BABIP a brutal .143 — xStats suggest the contact has been better than the results
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.143 unlucky low — AVG should rebound (Buy 68)
- Sample disclaimer: Wait for sample if PA is thin, but the signal is loud
- Add priority: Stash in 15-team and OF-needy 12-team leagues
Ryne Stanek (P — STL — 2% owned)
- Season line: 9.00 ERA masking a 4.70 FIP — the surface number is a mirage
- Driving signal: ERA (9.00) > FIP (4.70) — ERA should regress down (Buy 68)
- Sample disclaimer: Reliever IP small — proceed only in holds/SV+H formats
- Add priority: Watchlist
Chris Paddack (P — MIA — 2% owned)
- Season line: 6.38 ERA / 4.70 FIP — gap of 1.68 runs screams variance
- Driving signal: ERA (6.38) > FIP (4.70) — ERA should regress down (Buy 64)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — starter sample is workable
- Add priority: Stash in 15-team, streamer in 12-team
Miles Mikolas (P — WSH — 1% owned)
- Season line: 9.15 ERA / 7.17 FIP — both numbers are ugly, but FIP says it's less catastrophic
- Driving signal: ERA (9.15) > FIP (7.17) — ERA should regress down (Buy 64)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed with caution — FIP still poor
- Add priority: Watchlist, NL-only consideration
Tyler Stephenson (C — CIN — 4% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .194, well below career norms — bat-to-ball profile suggests rebound
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.194 unlucky low — AVG should rebound (Buy 63)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — catcher PA accumulates slowly but signal is clear
- Add priority: Add immediately in two-catcher and 15-team formats
Tier 2 — Sub-20% Owned With Real Signals
Adrian Morejon (P — SD — 11% owned)
- Season line: 6.17 ERA hiding a 1.66 FIP — that's a 4.51-run gap, the loudest on the board
- Driving signal: ERA should regress down hard (Buy 73)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed
- Add priority: Add immediately in 12-team and deeper
Lance McCullers Jr. (P — HOU — 10% owned)
- Season line: 6.20 ERA / 4.04 FIP — name brand at a discount
- Driving signal: ERA (6.20) > FIP (4.04) — ERA should regress down (Buy 68)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed
- Add priority: Add immediately in 15-team, stash in 12-team
Walker Buehler (P — SD — 5% owned)
- Season line: 5.75 ERA / 3.35 FIP — 2.40-run delta with pedigree behind it
- Driving signal: ERA (5.75) > FIP (3.35) — ERA should regress down (Buy 63)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed
- Add priority: Add immediately — 5% ownership is a gift
Marcell Ozuna (DH — PIT — 6% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .222, well below his career mark — power profile intact
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.222 unlucky low — AVG should rebound (Buy 62)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed
- Add priority: Stash in 15-team, UTIL-only in 12-team
J.P. Crawford (SS — SEA — 6% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .244 — middle-infield bat being suppressed by batted-ball luck
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.244 unlucky low — AVG should rebound (Buy 60)
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed
- Add priority: Add immediately in 15-team, MI-needy 12-team
What I Won't Recommend This Week
Peter Lambert (P — HOU — 15% owned)
- Anti-signal: 3.27 ERA already outpaces a 1.93 FIP, so the buy signal is technically there — but signal strength is only Hold 58 and ownership is climbing. You're paying retail for a relief profile in a starter slot. Pass unless you're in a 15-team or AL-only format with desperate ratio needs.