At-a-Glance SummarySkim
| Player | Pos | Team | Own % | Signal Score | Add Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | P | SD | ▓░░░░░░░ 11% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 73 | Add immediately |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | P | HOU | ▓░░░░░░░ 9% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 68 | Add immediately |
| Harrison Bader | LF | SF | ░░░░░░░░ 2% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 68 | Add immediately |
| Ryne Stanek | P | STL | ░░░░░░░░ 2% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 68 | Stash |
| Walker Buehler | P | SD | ░░░░░░░░ 5% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 63 | Add immediately |
| Chris Paddack | P | MIA | ░░░░░░░░ 3% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 64 | Stash |
| Miles Mikolas | P | WSH | ░░░░░░░░ 1% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 64 | Watchlist |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | CIN | ░░░░░░░░ 4% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 63 | Add immediately |
| Marcell Ozuna | DH | PIT | ░░░░░░░░ 6% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 62 | Stash |
| J.P. Crawford | SS | SEA | ░░░░░░░░ 6% | ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░ 60 | Stash |
The Five You Don't Have (Sub-5% Owned)
Harrison Bader (LF — SF — 2% owned)
- Season line: BABIP sits at a microscopic .143 — career mark is north of .300
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.143 unlucky low — AVG should rebound hard
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — Bader's contact profile has always supported a healthy BABIP
- Add priority: Add immediately in 15-team and NL-only formats
Ryne Stanek (P — STL — 2% owned)
- Season line: 9.00 ERA masking a 4.70 FIP
- Driving signal: ERA-FIP gap of 4.30 runs — pure variance
- Sample disclaimer: Wait for sample if IP<25, but the leverage role makes him worth a stash
- Add priority: Stash in holds leagues
Chris Paddack (P — MIA — 3% owned)
- Season line: 6.38 ERA / 4.70 FIP
- Driving signal: ERA (6.38) > FIP (4.70) — ERA should regress down
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — peripherals are stabilizing
- Add priority: Stash for streaming spots
Miles Mikolas (P — WSH — 1% owned)
- Season line: 9.15 ERA, 7.17 FIP
- Driving signal: ERA-FIP gap of nearly 2 runs, but FIP itself is ugly
- Sample disclaimer: Wait for sample — FIP this high is a red flag even with regression
- Add priority: Watchlist only in NL-only
Tyler Stephenson (C — CIN — 4% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .194 — well below his .310 career mark
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.194 unlucky low — AVG should rebound
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — catcher contact quality is intact
- Add priority: Add immediately in 12-team two-catcher leagues
Tier 2 — Sub-20% Owned With Real Signals
Adrian Morejon (P — SD — 11% owned)
- Season line: 6.17 ERA hiding a sparkling 1.66 FIP
- Driving signal: ERA-FIP gap of 4.51 — biggest on the board
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — peripherals are elite
- Add priority: Add immediately in all 12-team formats
Lance McCullers Jr. (P — HOU — 9% owned)
- Season line: 6.20 ERA / 4.04 FIP
- Driving signal: ERA (6.20) > FIP (4.04) — ERA should regress down
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed if healthy — health remains the story
- Add priority: Add immediately in 15-team
Walker Buehler (P — SD — 5% owned)
- Season line: 5.75 ERA, 3.35 FIP
- Driving signal: 2.40-run ERA-FIP gap on a name-brand arm
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — pedigree + peripherals
- Add priority: Add immediately
Marcell Ozuna (DH — PIT — 6% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .222 vs. career .310+
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.222 unlucky low — AVG should rebound
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — barrels still showing
- Add priority: Stash in 12-team
J.P. Crawford (SS — SEA — 6% owned)
- Season line: BABIP .244
- Driving signal: BABIP 0.244 unlucky low — AVG should rebound
- Sample disclaimer: Proceed — OBP profile is locked in
- Add priority: Stash in OBP/15-team
Peter Lambert (P — HOU — 13% owned)
- Season line: 3.27 ERA, 1.93 FIP
- Driving signal: FIP suggests ERA could drop FURTHER
- Sample disclaimer: Wait for sample if IP<25 before trusting fully
- Add priority: Watchlist trending to add
What I Won't Recommend
| Player | Why to Pass |
|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas (1% owned) | 7.17 FIP means even regression leaves him as a streaming-only arm in NL-only |
| Peter Lambert (13% owned) | 1.93 FIP on what's likely a tiny sample — not yet trustworthy in 12-team mixed |