Top conviction

Edwin Arroyo is filling in for injured Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL placed 2026-06-01, ETA 2-4 weeks per MLB.com) at shortstop — a direct, high-runway replacement with plus defensive metrics and AAA pedigree backing him. Called up 2026-06-01 after slashing .323/.383/.562 with 11 HR across 250 PA at Triple-A Louisville, per @CharlieG__.

ADD Edwin Arroyo

2B·SS · CIN · 15% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Filling in for Elly De La Cruz (10-day IL placed 2026-06-01, ETA 2-4 weeks per MLB.com), Arroyo inherits the shortstop slot in Cincinnati's healthy rotation with a multi-week runway ahead. Called up 2026-06-01 after hitting .323/.383/.562 with 11 HR and 9 SB across 53 games at Triple-A Louisville — elite AAA production that earned De La Cruz's own endorsement: "He's a gamer… he can do it all and reminds me of myself," per the incumbent's statement to reporters. No MLB sample yet — we're working off the callup event, the strong AAA line, and the role landing spot — but Arroyo's defensive reputation (described by @CharlieG__ as "one of the more smooth infielders you'll see") suggests he'll hold the job even when De La Cruz returns, making this a play on both immediate opportunity and sustained mid-order lineup reps.

Last 7 days

🔴 B 05-26 🔴 B 05-27 ⬜ 05-28 🔴 B 05-29 🔴 B 05-30 🔴 B 05-31 🟢8 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░░▓▓▓ Add · 75% — direct IL replacement with 2-4 week runway

Verdict: ADD. Arroyo is the most straightforward opportunity on the board: a slot-for-slot replacement for a named starter on the IL with an injury window that extends into mid-to-late June, paired with AAA numbers that justify the call and a beat-writer lock on the role.

ADD Curtis Mead

1B·2B·3B · WSH · 29% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Locked in as Washington's primary third baseman, Mead is the clear #1 at the position and hasn't shown any depth-chart competition for the job. Over his last 14 days, he's slashing .260 with 4 HR and 10 RBI across 11 games — modest counting stats, but his Statcast profile tells a different story. His xwOBA sits at .376, a full 92 points ahead of his observed wOBA (.284), indicating he's been the victim of a .227 BABIP that will naturally regress upward as his contact luck normalizes. At 160 PA on the season with a .856 OPS and 8 HR, Mead has the full-season runway to sustain a starting gig in a healthy lineup.

Last 7 days

🟢2 05-26 🟢3 05-27 ⬜ 05-28 🟢3 05-29 🟢9 05-30 🟢3 05-31 🟢3 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓▓▓ Add · 73% — starting 3B with elite xwOBA backing a cold streak

Verdict: ADD. Mead (29% owned) is a starter with the Statcast metrics to support an offensive rebound; a sub-.230 BABIP over 160 PA is a clear regression candidate, and his lineup role remains unchanged even as his recent hit total lags.

ADD Dillon Dingler

C · DET · 71% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Detroit's primary catcher holds a full-time role in a healthy lineup with no IL'd competitor ahead. Over his last 14 days, Dingler has posted a .192 BA across 12 games with 5 HR and 10 RBI — a power-to-contact ratio that looks ugly on the surface but masks a strong underlying profile. His xwOBA of .406 sits 41 points above his observed wOBA (.355), and his .247 BABIP is unlucky; once he normalizes his hit rate, his seasonal .241 average should climb toward .270+ territory. At 221 PA with 13 HR and a .827 OPS, he's on a pace to deliver elite power production at a scarce position.

Last 7 days

🟢2 05-26 🟢3 05-27 🟢3 05-28 🟢2 05-29 🟢2 05-30 🔴 B 05-31 🟢2 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░░▓▓▓ Add · 72% — starting C with elite xwOBA masking a .247 BABIP regression candidate

Verdict: ADD. Dingler (71% owned) is a season-long starter whose power metrics far exceed his recent batting average; his Statcast profile + role lock + power pace justify a roster spot despite the L14 slump.

ADD Colton Cowser

OF · BAL · 6% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Baltimore's right fielder is the #1 option at his position in a healthy lineup. Over his last 14 days, Cowser has gone .354 with 3 HR and 9 RBI across 12 games — one of the hottest stretches on today's board. His seasonal line sits at .215/.298/.327 (.625 OPS) across 122 PA, which looks pedestrian, but his xwOBA of .305 exceeds his observed wOBA (.239) by 66 points, suggesting the recent power surge is underpinned by genuine quality of contact rather than luck alone. With full-time at-bats locked in and a 14-day hot streak backing the low-season ownership, Cowser merits a speculative add in shallower leagues.

Last 7 days

🟢7 05-26 🟢7 05-27 🟢7 05-28 🟢• 05-29 🟢9 05-30 🟢7 05-31 ⬜ 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓▓▓ Add · 68% — #1 RF with hot L14 and modest xwOBA boost

Verdict: ADD. Cowser (6% owned) is a low-owned starting right fielder riding a legitimate 14-day hot streak (.354 / 3 HR) into June; his xwOBA suggests the power is real, not fluky.

STREAM Kevin Kelly

RP · TB · 14% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Tablesetter for Tampa Bay's bullpen, Kelly has emerged as a high-leverage setup arm with elite arsenal credentials. Over his last 14 days, he's logged 4.2 IP with 2 K and a 4.29 ERA — workmanlike stuff — but his season profile tells the deeper story: 26 games, 27 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 19 K across the full line, with a Stuff+ rating of 120 (elite) and a 61.2% ground-ball rate that limits long-ball risk. His xERA sits at 3.52, only 85 points ahead of his ERA, suggesting his 2.67 mark is sustainable if not repeatable. Limited to RP work (no save opportunities in sight given Tampa Bay's depth chart), but the pure stuff and role stability make him a solid bullpen stream this week.

Last 7 days

🔴 B 05-26 🔴 B 05-27 ⬜ 05-28 🟢• 05-29 🔴 B 05-30 🟢• 05-31 🔴 B 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓▓░ Add · 64% — setup RP with elite stuff, limited save path

Verdict: STREAM. Kelly (14% owned) is a low-owned bullpen arm with Stuff+ 120 and a sub-3.00 ERA; stream him for the week as a leverage relief play with no closer role in sight.

WATCH Jake McCarthy

OF · COL · 9% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Colorado's center fielder holds the #1 spot at his position in a usually crowded outfield. Over his last 14 days, McCarthy has slashed .245 with 2 HR and 7 RBI across 13 games — a modest power profile at a premium position. His xwOBA sits at .323, just 14 points ahead of his observed .309, and his seasonal OPS of .808 across 164 PA doesn't justify urgency. The Statcast metrics are cool (xwOBA .348 on the year exceeds his surface .309 by 39 points), and his speed remains intact (10 SB on the season), but without a clear recent trend or role-locked opportunity beyond the standard starting gig, his 9% ownership is appropriately conservative.

Last 7 days

🟢6 05-26 🟢• 05-27 ⬜ 05-28 🟢1 05-29 🟢1 05-30 🟢• 05-31 🟢1 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 45% — starting CF with modest L14, light sample

Verdict: WATCH. McCarthy (9% owned) is a starting center fielder with reasonable Statcast backing but no recent hot streak or role catalyst to justify an add right now; monitor his lineup spot and power trends over the next week.

WATCH Ezequiel Duran

SS·2B·3B·OF · TEX · 51% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Texas' #1 shortstop has locked in a starting role with daily lineup presence with the injury to Seager. Over his last 14 days, Duran has torn the cover off the ball to the tune of .313 with 1 HR and 15 RBI across 13 games — an elite average pace backed by consistent at-bats (60% playing time). His xwOBA of .315 trails his surface wOBA (.336) by 21 points, however, suggesting his recent success is driven partly by quality contact (good) and partly by a favorable hit distribution (less sustainable). At 87 PA on the season (.303 / .372 / .461), Duran has the full-season runway, but without a multi-week burn or injury fill-in storyline, his mid-season 51% ownership already reflects his role clarity.

Last 7 days

🟢7 05-26 🟢• 05-27 🟢7 05-28 🟢5 05-29 🟢5 05-30 🟢5 05-31 🟢5 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 48% — starting SS with hot L14, light season sample

Verdict: WATCH. Duran (51% owned) is already moderately rostered; his L14 line is eye-catching (.313 / 15 RBI), but xwOBA suggests the recent success is hit-luck dependent — hold if you own him, but don't chase the ownership spike.

WATCH Samuel Basallo

C · BAL · 57% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Baltimore's split catcher/DH runs a platoon/short-side role with no incumbent ahead on IL. Over his last 14 days, Basallo has posted .257 with 3 HR and 8 RBI across 11 games — pedestrian surface numbers that mask a solid Statcast profile. His xwOBA of .356 exceeds his observed .259 by 97 points, indicating he's getting barreled up (12.1% Barrel%, 48.3% HH%) but running into unlucky exit-velo or angle distributions. At 177 PA with a .861 OPS and 9 HR, he's the most interesting young catcher in Baltimore's system — but his backup role limits his runway to part-time work, and his 57% ownership already reflects his platoon value.

Last 7 days

🟢4 05-26 🔴 B 05-27 🟢• 05-28 🟢5 05-29 🟢5 05-30 🟢5 05-31 ⬜ 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 42% — backup C with elite xwOBA, platoon role limits volume

Verdict: WATCH. Basallo (57% owned) has Statcast chops (xwOBA .356), but a part-time role and already-moderate ownership mean his waiver margin is thin; he's a hold-only play for catcher-needy teams.

WATCH Kerry Carpenter

OF · DET · 39% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Listed as Detroit's #1 left fielder on the depth chart with a backup designation, Carpenter's role sits in gray territory between starter and platoon. Over his last 14 days, he's gone 4-for-7 (.571) with 1 HR across just 2 games — an eye-popping micro-sample with zero predictive power at 14 PA. His seasonal line (.239/.315/.495, .810 OPS) across 124 PA sits underwater versus league average, and his xwOBA of .302 trails his observed .274 by 28 points, suggesting he's been hitting into weak exit velocities despite a 47.8% hard-hit rate. The recent playing time (appears in 2 of last 3 games) is a positive sign, but without a multi-game runway or role confirmation from the Tigers coaching staff, Carpenter remains a speculative stash.

Last 7 days

🔴 B 05-26 🔴 B 05-27 🔴 B 05-28 🔴 B 05-29 🔴 B 05-30 🟢• 05-31 🟢• 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 35% — corner OF with micro-sample L14, role unclear

Verdict: WATCH. Carpenter (39% owned) just got two straight days of work, but his 2-game sample is noise; wait for 5+ consecutive days of lineup presence before committing roster space.

WATCH Nick Gonzales

SS·2B·3B · PIT · 13% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Pittsburgh's #1 3B on the depth chart is on a consistent lineup presence. Over his last 14 days, Gonzales has posted .240 with 1 HR and 7 RBI across 12 games — modest power for a shortstop despite a full-time at-bat allocation (53 PA in L14). His xwOBA of .337 exceeds his wOBA (.276) by 61 points, a significant gap suggesting he's making quality contact but experiencing an ugly .391 BABIP over the season (161 hits in 531 PA would be sustainably elite if real, but 39% BABIP is unsustainable). At 216 PA with just 1 HR, Gonzales' power pace is mediocre for the position, and his recent slump (.240 L14 vs .303 season) suggests he's cooling into regression rather than heating. His role clarity is a plus, but the BABIP overage and lack of power spike keep him on the watch list.

Last 7 days

🟢4 05-26 🟢4 05-27 🟢• 05-28 🟢4 05-29 🟢4 05-30 🟢5 05-31 ⬜ 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 59% — starting SS with role lock, .391 BABIP regression risk

Verdict: WATCH. Gonzales (13% owned) is a starting shortstop whose season BABIP (.391) is wildly unsustainable; his L14 slump (.240) is likely the regression beginning, not a blip.

WATCH Jorge Mateo

SS·2B·OF · ATL · 12% owned (▲ +2.0pp)

Why he's being added

Over his last 14 days, Mateo has slashed .333 with 2 HR and 5 RBI across just 6 games — a dazzling micro-sample on 21 PA that carries zero forward relevance. His xwOBA of .371 is elite, but it sits against a .441 BABIP that is unsustainably inflated; his seasonal OPS of .794 and xwOBA of .309 (not .371) reveal his true profile as a depth hitter with modest upside. His recent playing-time spike (appears in 5 of last 6 games) is a temporary bump driven by Atlanta's roster construction, not a long-term opportunity. The 2 pp ownership jump reflects waiver noise rather than a durable role expansion.

Last 7 days

🔴 B 05-26 🟢7 05-27 🟢7 05-28 🟢8 05-29 🟢8 05-30 🟢• 05-31 ⬜ 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 12% — depth SS, .441 BABIP regression imminent, no role path

Verdict: WATCH. Mateo (12% owned) is riding a .441 BABIP that will regress sharply; his recent add spike is a buying-the-hype play that the underlying numbers don't support.

WATCH Ernie Clement

2B·3B·SS·1B · TOR · 69% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Toronto's primary second baseman holds a role-locked starting gig in a healthy lineup. Over his last 14 days, Clement has crushed the ball to the tune of .354 with 2 HR and 6 RBI across 13 games — an eye-popping average line that masks an underlying Statcast red flag. His xwOBA of .281 sits 41 points BEHIND his observed .322, and his Barrel% of just 2.9% indicates he's generating high averages without genuine power metrics backing it. With a 25.4% hard-hit rate (well below league average), Clement is a classic high-BABIP beneficiary whose .354 L14 will regress toward his season .256 average as luck normalizes. At 69% ownership, the market has already priced in his baseline starter value — the recent hot streak is a sell signal, not a buy one.

Last 7 days

🟢6 05-26 🟢7 05-27 🟢7 05-28 🟢2 05-29 🟢7 05-30 🟢5 05-31 ⬜ 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░▓░░░░░░ Add · 17% — starting 2B, xwOBA contradicts L14, BABIP regression imminent

Verdict: WATCH. Clement (69% owned) is already highly owned; his .354 L14 is undermined by xwOBA (.281) sitting 41 points below his surface — a classic high-BABIP sell signal, not a buy.

WATCH Brooks Lee

SS·2B·3B · MIN · 35% owned (▲ +1.0pp)

Why he's being added

Minnesota's #1 3B runs a starting role in a healthy lineup with no role competition. Over his last 14 days, Lee has posted .255 with 3 HR and 10 RBI across 12 games — a power-for-average tradeoff that doesn't move the needle at the position. His xwOBA of .273 trails his observed .326 by 53 points — a massive gap indicating his recent success is driven by luck rather than skill. His Statcast peripherals are pedestrian (5.5% Barrel%, 30.1% HH%), and his seasonal OPS of .743 across 221 PA ranks below average for the position. At 35% ownership, Lee's mid-tier value is already reflected in league rosters; his L14 pop is a mirage built on .391 BABIP inflation.

Last 7 days

🟢2 05-26 🟢• 05-27 🟢2 05-28 🟢2 05-29 🟢2 05-30 🟢2 05-31 🟢2 06-01

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░░░░▓ Add · 16% — starting SS, xwOBA trails wOBA by 53 points, regression imminent

Verdict: WATCH. Brooks Lee (35% owned) is a starting third baseman whose L14 success (.255 / 3 HR) is contradicted by xwOBA (.273) sitting 53 points below his surface — a clear regression signal masquerading as a hot streak.