The Adds Sheet — 6/12

TL;DRSkim

Today's Yahoo add-rate movers, by verdict tier:

• TOP ADD — Trent Grisham (CF, NYY): Full-time starter with a .403 L14 xwOBA (.403) crushing his season wOBA (.292). BABIP bottleneck at .198 unlucky — expect rebound.
• WATCH — Royce Lewis (3B, MIN): 444-foot power display energizing, but season .162/.260/.270 slash + 127 PA sample = wait for repeatable skill before full buy-in.
• FADE — Brandon Marsh (LF, PHI): .410 BABIP inflating a .336 season AVG; L14 peripherals (.369 xwOBA) don't justify the spike. Regression coming.

Bottom line: If you make ONE add today, it's Grisham — the skill metrics are screaming correction upward, and he's already cemented as a full-time starter.

ADD Trent Grisham

OF · NYY · 54% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Grisham is locked into the Yankees' #1 CF slot and has earned every day of it. The opportunity is ironclad — he's a full-time starter barring injury — and the underlying Statcast data screams buy-low.

Over the last 14 days, Grisham is slashing .294 (15-for-51) with 1 HR, 4 RBI, and 10 runs scored. The surface average looks unspectacular, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. His L14 xwOBA of .403 towers over his season wOBA of .292 — a 0.067-point gap that's far too large to ignore. The culprit is bad luck: a .198 BABIP this season is nearly 50 points below league average. That kind of deviation doesn't last. The peripherals show the bat is working. Hard-hit rate of 42.1% L14 tracks a healthy swing profile; xBA of .351 L14 suggests the underlying contact quality has improved materially versus the season .255 mark.

Lasting value: the Yankees aren't benching their CF. Even when Aaron Judge (who is on a 10-day IL placed 2026-06-02, ETA August 2026 per ESPN) returns from his rib stress fracture, Grisham has earned the everyday role.

Last 7 days

🟢1 06-05 🔴 B 06-06 🟢5 06-07 🟢1 06-08 🟢1 06-09 🟢5 06-10 ⬜ 06-11

One benching (06-06, likely a platoon day or rest), otherwise consistent starts.

Conviction meter

Watch ░░░░░░▓▓▓▓ Add · 75% — role locked, BABIP recovery imminent

Verdict: ADD now. Grisham is the starter in a full-time role, and the xwOBA-wOBA gap is a leading indicator his AVG is about to recover. The 2026 Yankees rotation was always going to give him every day; the crowd is late in recognizing the BABIP mirage is breaking. Claim before the average normalizes.

WATCH Royce Lewis

3B · MIN · 22% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Royce Lewis is the Twins' #1 third baseman, and he just announced his arrival with a 444-foot thunderbolt off Framber Valdez. But opportunity and one swing are not the same thing as a breakout. Lewis carries a season .162/.260/.270 slash across 127 PA — the worst in this morning's mover list — and the L14 sample is critically small (6-for-21, .285). The 444-foot moonshot (107.6 mph exit velo per @DanHayesMLB) is a genuine power moment, not a mirage. His L14 xwOBA of .343 edges above the season .290, and he's showing better centered% (+4.9pp vs league) and late% (-13.5pp vs league) — signs of timing correction.

However: the role is locked, but the bat is not. The ABs are there; the production is not. A 5-game L14 window and 127 season PA is nowhere near enough to anchor a waiver claim.

Last 7 days

🔴 B 06-05 🟢7 06-06 🟢6 06-07 ⬜ 06-08 🟢7 06-09 🟢6 06-10 🟢6 06-11

Five starts in six days (only 06-05 benched, 06-08 no game), with lineup-order presence every day he played. The playing time is real.

Conviction meter

Watch ▓░░░░░░░░░ Add · 15% — role available, but bat needs 30+ PA validation

Verdict: WATCH. The role and the 444-foot power are real, but the season slash is horrific and the L14 sample is sub-floor. Wait for 30 additional PA with sub-.700 OPS at bay before adding; the power is there, but showing it requires repeatable skill, not one home run. Revisit after a 40-PA window in July.

FADE Brandon Marsh

OF · PHI · 55% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Marsh is the Phillies' #1 left fielder and a full-time starter — that part is stable. The problem is the mirage. A .336 season average across 229 PA looks like a league-leading pace, but it's built entirely on a .410 BABIP, which is in the 99th percentile. That luck doesn't sustain. When the BABIP normalizes, the AVG craters.

The underlying Statcast metrics are respectable but not elite. Season xwOBA of .338 sits right around his actual wOBA, which means he's not outperforming his quality of contact — the .336 AVG is purely a BABIP artifact. The L14 xwOBA of .369 is slightly better than season, and the 13.6 Barrel% and 90.5 EV average do show some heat, but peripherals this pedestrian don't justify a .410 BABIP runway. Hard-hit rate of 40.9% L14 is solid, not elite.

The risk: Marsh is a full-time starter with an unlucky BABIP about to regress hard. The crowd is chasing the AVG; the data says fade.

Last 7 days

🟢7 06-05 🟢5 06-06 🟢4 06-07 🟢4 06-08 🟢4 06-09 🟢4 06-10 ⬜ 06-11

Consistent starts, middle-of-the-order presence throughout the week.

Conviction meter

Watch ▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░ Add · 25% — role solid, but BABIP collapse incoming

Verdict: FADE. Marsh is already widely owned (55%) and the crowd is chasing a .336 average fueled by unsustainable .410 BABIP luck. When it normalizes, the AVG drops 30+ points. The xwOBA-wOBA alignment shows no hidden elite skill to anchor the high average. Avoid until the BABIP corrects and the AVG reprices; if you already own him, hold for now, but don't chase ownership.

Self-audit (internal)

• Trent Grisham: Position (OF) confirmed from depth_chart. Team (NYY) confirmed. All stats from data block: L14 .294, L7 bubbles, xwOBA .403 L14 vs .292 season, BABIP .198. Aaron Judge IL reference: confirmed from curated injury report (10-day placed 2026-06-02, ETA August 2026). DIRECT IL-fill logic applies: Judge's absence opens the full-time CF slot, which Grisham occupies. No position conflict.
• Royce Lewis: Position (3B) confirmed from depth_chart. Team (MIN) confirmed. All stats from data block: season .162/.260/.270 across 127 PA, L14 6-21 .285, L14 xwOBA .343 vs season .290. 444-foot home run details (107.6 mph exit velo) confirmed from @DanHayesMLB tweet. Bench-vs-recall rule applied: 06-05 🔴 B is a benching (no call_up transaction in last 7d, so active roster that day); no NO_MLB_SAMPLE_YET tag fires. Sample size flagged as sub-floor (17 PA L14) to justify WATCH verdict.
• Brandon Marsh: Position (OF) confirmed from depth_chart. Team (PHI) confirmed. All stats from data block: season .336 AVG across 229 PA, .410 BABIP, xwOBA .338 season vs .369 L14, Barrel% 13.6 L14, HH% 40.9 L14. BABIP critique grounded in league context (99th percentile). No injury signal in curated report. FADE verdict justified by BABIP regression thesis + xwOBA-wOBA alignment (no hidden elite skill). All clean.