The Adds Sheet — 6/16

Yahoo's largest day-over-day ownership gainers, ranked by roster movement. Yesterday's coverage (Bryce Eldridge's heat) is excluded; today's focus is fresh adds with concrete catalysts.

TL;DRSkim

• TODAY'S ADDS — Dustin May (rotation starter on an elite recent run; 1.34 ERA / 24 K over the last 14 days) is the highest-conviction play.
• WATCH LIST — Willi Castro (locked-in starter but BABIP-driven), TJ Rumfield (sample size light), Cole Carrigg (fresh call-up, unsustainable contact rates).
• SPECULATE — Elvis Alvarado (emerging from Oakland's closer committee with the hot hand) is the saves-league flier worth a look.
• Bottom line — May is the cleanest add this slate; Alvarado is the saves speculation, and the rest warrant monitoring more than aggressive moves.

ADD Dustin May

SP · STL · 52% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Dustin May holds a full-time rotation slot in St. Louis with no recent injury competition. Over his last 14 days, he's posted a 1.34 ERA across 20.2 innings with 24 strikeouts — the kind of ratio stability waiver-wire adds hunt for. His xERA over that stretch sits at 3.36, meaning the surface ERA has gotten some sequencing help, but 3.36 is still a clear step forward and points to favorable regression as the sample grows. Beat reporter @dgoold noted May working five flawless innings on just 50 pitches in his most recent outing — a sign the mechanics have settled. His season whiff rate (22.0%) is modest, but the efficiency gains and a competent strikeout profile back the L14 surge.

One wrinkle worth knowing: May has surfaced in trade-deadline rumors, with the Cardinals a candidate to move him if they fade. For fantasy that's not a downgrade — a move to a contender would likely improve his win equity and run support — but it's context for his rest-of-season role.

Last 7 days 🟡 B 06-09 🔴 B 06-10 🔴 B 06-11 🔴 B 06-12 🔴 B 06-13 🔴 B 06-14 🟡 B 06-15

(Note: bubbles reflect the rotation schedule; "B" designates off-days and between-start roster slots, not bench time.)

Conviction meter Watch ░░░░▓▓▓▓▓▓ Add · 65% — rotation starter on an L14 breakout, xERA supports the improvement

Verdict: May is a clear add in 12-team mixed leagues. He owns a guaranteed rotation slot, his recent 1.34 ERA is backed by a sub-3.50 xERA, and the trajectory points to positive regression. Stream or hold him through the rest of June, and don't be scared off if a deadline move materializes.

HOLD Willi Castro

2B · COL · 29% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Willi Castro is locked into the everyday second-base job in Colorado, guaranteeing near-full-time at-bats. Over the last 14 days he's slashing .307 with 3 HR and 10 RBI across 11 games — a line that catches the eye on the wire. But his .375 BABIP over that window is unsustainably high (his season mark is a league-average .279), and the gap between his L14 xBA and his actual average signals batted-ball luck inflating the surface line. His L14 xwOBA (.409) is genuinely encouraging, but a 5.3% barrel rate in that window is modest and doesn't fully support a .307 average going forward.

Last 7 days 🟢2 06-09 🟢1 06-10 🟢2 06-11 🟢1 06-12 🟢2 06-13 🟢1 06-14 🟢1 06-15

Conviction meter Watch ░░░░░░▓▓▓▓ Add · 40% — locked starter but BABIP-inflated; regression expected

Verdict: Hold if you own Castro; don't chase on waivers. The role is stable, but the .375 BABIP will normalize and pull his average back toward the .270s. He's a season-long starter, not a week-to-week target.

WATCH TJ Rumfield

1B · COL · 15% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

TJ Rumfield holds the everyday first-base job in Colorado. Over his last 14 days, though, he's managed just 12 hits in 53 at-bats (.226) with 3 HR — a slump against a season line of .268/7 HR. The recent Statcast profile is muted too: a .281 xwOBA with zero barrels in 45 plate appearances and a soft 82.3 mph average exit velocity. His season xwOBA (.324) and 6.3% barrel rate offer some credibility, but the downturn plus the light sample make this monitor-only until the metrics stabilize.

Last 7 days 🟢3 06-09 🟢3 06-10 🟢3 06-11 🟢3 06-12 🟢3 06-13 🟢3 06-14 🟢3 06-15

Conviction meter Watch ▓▓░░░░░░░░ Add · 20% — primary starter but recent downturn + light sample; wait for the rebound

Verdict: Rumfield warrants a watch-list slot given the locked lineup spot, but a 14-day slump with weak underlying metrics makes him a hold-your-own rather than a waiver target. Revisit if his xwOBA climbs back above .320.

WATCH Cole Carrigg

OF · COL · 11% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Cole Carrigg is penciled in as Colorado's primary center fielder, giving him a real runway of plate appearances. The Triple-A pedigree is legitimate — .338/.414/.529 across 57 games with 6 HR and 30 SB — a speed-and-power profile that plays. Through his first few MLB games he's 27 at-bats in with 3 HR and 8 RBI, but the underlying L14 line flashes the warning: a .387 BABIP alongside an 11.1% barrel rate is an unsustainable combination. His L14 xwOBA (.365) and 50.0% hard-hit rate are encouraging, and the .309 xBA suggests his current average has room to climb if the BABIP holds — but it's a tiny sample, and the role isn't fully cemented yet.

Last 7 days 🟢7 06-09 🟢6 06-10 🟢6 06-11 🟢6 06-12 🟢6 06-13 🟢6 06-14 🟢6 06-15

Conviction meter Watch ░░░░░░▓▓░░ Add · 35% — fresh call-up with AAA upside but a micro MLB sample; BABIP inflated

Verdict: Carrigg belongs on the watch list for the Triple-A credentials and the center-field runway, but the tiny MLB sample and .387 BABIP argue against an immediate add. The power (3 HR, 8 RBI already) is a real tease — flag him for next week once the role firms up and the contact rates settle. In dynasty and deep NL-only, he's worth grabbing now for the speed-power upside.

SPECULATE Elvis Alvarado

RP · ATH · 11% owned (▲ +1.0pp day-over-day)

Why he's being added

Elvis Alvarado is emerging as the primary option out of Oakland's closer-by-committee. Since his June 5 recall he's reeled off four straight scoreless appearances with two saves, and the broader fantasy industry has him flagged as the A's arm "could be emerging" into the lead role. Over the last 14 days that's a 0.00 ERA with 11 K across 5.1 innings — exactly the hot hand that earns ninth-inning trust on a committee club. The cautions are real: his season line (8.38 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 6.5 BB/9) is ugly, though it's a distorted 9.2-inning sample built mostly on his pre-recall struggles, and his 4.10 xERA says the current run is running a bit ahead of the underlying stuff. The walk rate is the thing to watch — control wobbles are how committee arms lose the job.

Last 7 days 🟡 B 06-09 🟡 B 06-10 ⬜ 06-11 🔴 B 06-12 🟡 B 06-13 🔴 B 06-14 🔴 B 06-15

Conviction meter Watch ░░░░░▓▓▓░░ Add · 50% — hot hand in a committee; saves access is real, but the control is fragile

Verdict: Alvarado is a speculative add in saves-needy leagues. He's not a locked closer — Oakland's been running a committee all year — but he has the hot hand, the recent saves, and the clearest current path to the ninth. The walk rate and the ugly season line mean you're betting on the role more than the ratios, so treat him as a churn-able saves source rather than a set-and-forget arm. In shallow leagues without a saves need, the committee risk makes him a pass.