Fantasy Baseball Trends · Buy-Low, Sell-High, Hot & Cold
Stuff+ Breakouts and Fades
Predictive Stuff+, a regression-stabilized forward measure of pitch quality, compared against a pitcher's current Stuff+ and ERA. A big positive gap means the stuff is real and the results are lagging; a negative one means the surface line is outrunning the arsenal.
Stuff+ Breakouts
Predictive Stuff+ is the model’s forward, regression-stabilized read on pitch quality. When it runs well above a pitcher’s current Stuff+ and his ERA lags, the stuff is real and underperforming — a breakout before the box score.
Predictive Stuff+ sits well above current Stuff+ AND the results actually lag (ERA ≥ 4.00 or ERA well over FIP) — the pitch quality is real and underperforming. Ranked by breakout score: upside gap + absolute quality + bad-luck signal. Capped to ≤70% rostered so they're acquirable.