Batting Projections
Rest-of-season batting · prior-year baseline blended with in-season rates and Statcast x-stats, regressed by stat-specific stabilization curves
Methodology: rate stats are blended toward each player’s own prior-season baseline (weighted 65/35 between seasons N-1 and N-2 where ≥50 PA each), then layered with Statcast x-stats (xwOBA, xBA) which deflate fluky outcomes. Weight on the prior decays by stat-specific stabilization half-life — K% stabilizes fast (~60 PA), AVG slow (~940 PA), OPS in between (~350 PA) — so small in-season samples lean prior-heavy.
Counting stats: PA opportunity is context-aware — starts from the player’s role baseline (regular / platoon / reserve), adjusted by current batting-order slot, platoon-side risk against typical opponents, and any active IL with days_out based on expected_return_date. L14 HR rate gets a +20% nudge to catch hot/cold streaks early.
These RoS projections are independent of the daily matchup projections. Backtested validity check (project 2024 first half → compare to actual 2024 second half) is on the roadmap.