Who Arrives Next
Prospects grouped by their measured chance of debuting, not by a guessed ETA year. See how accurate this is.
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How to read this. The percentage is the chance a player debuts within any given 30-day span, fitted on level and age across six freeze dates in 2026 (19,441 player-observations, 121 debuts). Level does nearly all the work: Triple-A ran 4.0% per 30 days, Double-A 0.11%, High-A and A 0.02%. Score and arrival are separate questions — a top-five prospect at Double-A is further away than a 24-year-old at Triple-A, and the board shows both. Full backtest