Runs and RBI Luck
Runs and RBI depend heavily on context a hitter does not control — where he bats, how often men are on, and how the lineup around him performs. This board separates the production driven by opportunity from the production driven by the hitter.
Run & RBI Luck
Is the R/RBI total lying? Two models — the opportunities and the conversion — plus the names where they agree.
Two models, one verdict. The opportunity model asks whether the R/RBI chances matched the results (xR from times on base + team run environment; xRBI from total bases + team OBP). The RISP split asks whether the hitter converted the chances he did get vs his own overall line. Names below trip both signals — the cleanest regression bets this section can produce.
Joining both models…