Lineup Slot Simulator · Fantasy Baseball Trends
What a batting-order move is actually worth. The league slot curve is measured from play-by-play — plate appearances per game at each spot in the order, plus the RBI and run context that changes with it — so moving a hitter from seventh to second reprices his counting stats before he improves at all. Volume and rate are separated: some categories scale with PA alone, others with the lineup context around them.
Lineup Slot Simulator
Batting order is baseball's ice time, except it moves two things where ice time moves one. Slide a hitter and his line moves with the plate appearances the slot is worth (leading off is a full extra PA per start over the nine-hole) and, once the play-by-play context is loaded, with the run environment too: how many runners are on when he bats, and how often he scores once he reaches.
Building the slot curve…